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December 30, 2008 - Piper Jaffray

Predicting product announcements for this year's Macworld has been difficult with new iPods and Macs released in the fall and the relatively new iPhone 3G. With Phil Schiller delivering the keynote, we believe it suggests there will not be any revolutionary products at this year's event.

While we believe it is unlikely that a new iPhone will be released at Macworld, we continue to expect a new model by the end of the March quarter. Specifically, we believe Apple could introduce a lower-end model that is slightly thicker due to the inclusion of a slider keyboard for students (texting) and business use (email) between $99 and $149."

December 17, 2008 - Analyst roundup re Macworld 09

Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer downgrades AAPL to Perform from Outperform:

We don’t know know why Steve Jobs has pulled out of his annual address at Macworld on January 6. Maybe he’s not feeling well, or maybe he just has nothing new to say. Whatever the reason, the unexpected announcement has underscored the greatest risk to Apple’s long-term success - its dependence on Jobs’ health and its apparent lack of a succession plan.

It’s past time for Apple to either disclose the state of his health or elaborate a viable plan for eventually transferring power. Until such time, we can no longer continue to recommend Apple as a long-term investment.”

Charles Wolf of Needham & Co.:

I think Apple wants to get away from the tyranny of MacWorld where it is forced to introduce new products on IDG's schedule, rather than its own."

Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets believes Apple will not be unveiling any new products at Macworld 09:

We believe that not having Mr. Jobs lead the 2009 MacWorld does suggest, consistent with our note of December 4, that this event will not be terribly meaningful. Hence, the downside in the stock for a disappointing MacWorld is probably realized near-term rather than at MacWorld."

Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros.:

I think it's going to be very difficult when you don't have the marquee star. Not only was Apple a big exhibitor, but the keynote was a big attraction. Eliminating those things will put a lot of pressure on the show."

Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray says an iMac refresh and redesigned Mac mini may be announced at Macworld:

We're not expecting as much today as we were yesterday. The reality is, if they had something big to show, Steve Jobs would probably be showing it.

While we do not believe that this change provides any indication regarding Steve Jobs' health, we do believe that it is a sign that we are in the early stages of changing roles in Apple's management structure.

While Steve Jobs is the irreplaceable face of Apple, we believe product innovation has come from throughout the organization."

December 16, 2008 - Goldman Sachs

The nearer-term outlook is less positive, as it now looks unlikely that Apple will launch a new product category at MacWorld in early January, taking away a potential catalyst for the shares and causing Apple to try to generate demand in a tough environment without the benefit of a new offering in the first part of 2009. An upcoming touch-screen tablet seems still in the development stage and will probably not be launched until the middle or back half of 2009.

Shipments of MacBooks, iPod nanos, and iPhone were all slightly lower than what was expected going into the quarter and Apple should face a tougher environment in the March and June quarters as consumer demand takes another leg down."

AAPL downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a lowered price target of $115 from $125.

December 4, 2008 - Piper Jaffray

The primary reason for our universe-wide estimate cuts is that the economic and consumer spending outlook has deteriorated significantly over the last month, which we expect to continue through 2009.

Our reduction is primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds causing overall PC sales to grow at about 5% y/y in 2009. We believe Macs will continue to gain share, but we are reducing our y/y growth to 10%, down from 16% previously."

Price target lowered to $235 from $250.

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